Advanced statistical methods for risk analysis, including:

  • Spatial statistics
  • Time series analysis
  • Extreme value modelling

with applications to the environment and public health.

Preprints/upcoming work

Nguyen, M., Loos, S., Lallemant, D. (2022), ‘Modelling spatial correlation in earthquake-induced damage and its impact on regional loss estimation’. Presented at ICOSSAR 2021-2022, 13th International Conference on Structural Safety & Reliability.

Nguyen, M., Veraart, A.E.D., Taisne, B., Tan, C.T., Lallemant, D. (2022), ‘A dynamic extreme value model with applications to volcanic eruption forecasting’. Under review. Preprint available at arXiv.

*Rabonza, M., Nguyen, M., Lallemant, D., Biasse, S., Jenkins, S. (2022), ‘Inversion and forward estimation with process-based models: an investigation into cost functions, uncertainty-based weights and model-data fusion’. Under review. Preprint available at SSRN.

Nguyen, M., Dzianach, P. A., Castle, P., Rumisha, S., Rozier, J. A., Gibson, H. S., Twohig, K. A., Vargas, C., Bisanzio, D., Cameron, E., Gething, P., Weiss, D. J., Bhatt, B., Battle, K. E. (2022). ‘Trends in treatment seeking for fever in children in 151 countries from 1990 to 2020’. Under review.

Nguyen, M., Rabonza, M., Lallemant, D. (2022). ‘Weighted model calibration with spatial conditional information’. In preparation.

Wagenaar, D., Balbi, M., Nguyen, M., Lim, T. N., Lallemant, D. (2022). ‘Uncertainty in disaster loss models due to spatial resolution. Part 1: Theory’. In preparation.

Wagenaar, D., Nguyen, M., Lim, T. N., Balbi, M., Lallemant, D. (2022). ‘Uncertainty in disaster loss modelling due to exposure resolution. Part 2: Application’. In preparation.

*Dzianach, P. A., Symons, T. L., Nguyen, M., Castle, P., Battle, K. E., Weiss, D. J., Gething, P. W. (2022). ‘Spatio-temporal trends in all-cause febrile illness in children: prevalence and incidence in 151 countries since 2000’. In preparation.


*Tay, C., Lindsey, E.O., Chin, S.T., McCaughey, J.W., Bekaert, D., Nguyen, M., Hua, H., Manipon, G., Karim, M., Horton, B.P., Hill, E.M. (2022), ‘Sea-level rise from land subsidence in major coastal cities’, Nature Sustainability.

*Rabonza, M., Lallemant, D., Lin, Y. C., Tadepalli, S., Wagenaar, D., Nguyen, M. et al. (2022), ‘Shedding light on avoided disasters: Measuring invisible benefits of disaster risk reduction using counterfactual probabilistic analysis’. GAR2022 Contributing Paper. Geneva: United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction.

*Henry, N.J., Elagali, A., Nguyen, M., Chipeta, M. and Moore, C. (2022), ‘Variation in excess all-cause mortality by age, sex, and province during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy’, Scientific Reports 12, 1077.

*Whittaker, C., Winskill, P., Sinka, M., Pironon, S., Massey, C., Weiss, D., Nguyen, M., Gething, P. W., Kumar, A., Ghani, A., Bhatt, S. (2022), ‘A novel statistical framework for exploring the population dynamics and seasonality of mosquito populations’, Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 20220089.

Nguyen, M. and Lallemant, D. (2021), ‘Order Matters: the Benefits of Ordinal Fragility Curves for Damage and Loss Estimation’. Risk Analysis 42(5), 1136-1148.

Lucas, T.C.D., Nandi, A., Chestnutt, E.G., Twohig, K.A., Keddie, S.H., Collins, E.L., Howes, R.E., Nguyen, M., Rumisha, S., Python, A., Arambepola, R., Bertozzi-Villa, A., Hancock, P., Amratia, P., …, Gething, P.W., Weiss, D.J. (2021), ‘Mapping malaria by sharing spatial information between incidence and prevalence datasets’, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series C (Applied Statistics) 70, 733-749.

Nguyen, M., Howes, R.E., Lucas, T.C.D., Battle, K.E., Cameron, E., Gibson, H.S., Rozier, J., Keddie, S., Collins, E., Arambepola, R., Kang, S., Hendriks, C., Nandi, A., Rumisha, S., Bhatt, S., Mioramalala, S., Nambinisoa, M. Andriamananjara, Rakotomanana, F., Gething, P.W., Weiss, D.J. (2020), ‘Mapping malaria seasonality in Madagascar using health facility data’, BMC Medicine 18, 26.

*Rathmes, G., Rushima, S.F., Lucas, T.C.D, Twohig, K.A., Python, A., Nguyen, M., Nandi, A.K., Keddie, S., Collins, E.L., Rozier, J., Gibson, H., Chestnutt, E.G., Battle, K.E., Humphreys, G.S., Amratia, P., Arambepola, R., Bertozzi-Villa, A., Hancock, P., Millar, J.J., Symons, T.L., Bhatt, S., Cameron, E., Guerin, P., Gething, P.W., Weiss, D.J. (2020), ‘Global estimation of anti-malarial drug effectiveness for the treatment of uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum malaria 1991-2019‘, Malaria Journal 19, 374.

GBD 2019 Viewpoint Collaborators (2020), ‘Five insights from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019’, The Lancet, 396(10258), 1135-59.

GBD 2019 Demographics Collaborators (2020), ‘Global age-sex-specific fertility, mortality, healthy life expectancy (HALE), and population estimates in 204 countries and territories, 1950-2019: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019’, The Lancet, 396(10258), 17-23.

Nguyen, M., Rozier, J., Keddie, S., Howes, R. E., Lucas, T. C. D., Weiss, D. J., Battle, K. E., Gething, P. W., Cameron, E., Gibson, H. S., Nambinisoa, M. Andriamananjara (2019). ‘A statistical modelling framework for mapping malaria seasonality’, Proceedings of the 62nd ISI World Statistics Congress, Kuala Lumpur, Contributed Paper Session (CPS) – Volume 3, 80-88.

Lucas, T. C. D., Hendriks, C., Python, A., Nandi, A., Hancock, P., Nguyen, M., Gething, P., Rumisha, S., Weiss, D., Battle, K. E., Cameron, E., Howes, R. (2019). ‘Model ensembles with different response variables for base and meta models: Malaria disaggregation regression combining prevalence and incidence data’, Proceedings of the 62nd ISI World Statistics Congress, Kuala Lumpur, Contributed Paper Session (CPS) – Volume 2, 165-174.

Nguyen, M. (2019). ‘From theory to application: a spatio-temporal modelling perspective’, Proceedings of the 21st European Young Statisticians Meeting, Belgrade, 73-79.

Weiss, D.J., Lucas, T.C.D, Nguyen, M., Nandi, A., Bisanzio, D., Battle, K.E., Cameron, E., Twohig, K., Pfeffer, D., Rozier, J., Gibson, H., Rao, P.C., Casey, D., Bertozzi-Villa, A. Collins, E.L., Dalrymple, U., Gray, N., Harris, J.R., …, Gething, P.W. (2019), ‘Mapping the global prevalence, incidence, and mortality of Plasmodium falciparum, 2000-17: a spatial and temporal modelling study’, The Lancet, 394(10195), 322-331.

Battle, K.E., Lucas, T.C.D., Nguyen, M., Howes, R.H., Nandi, A., Twohig, K.A., Pfeffer, D.A., Cameron, E., Rao, P.C., Casey, D.C., Gibson, H.S., Rozier, J., Dalrymple, U., Keddie, S.H., Collins, E.L., Harris, J.R., Guerra, C.A., Thorn, M.P., …, Gething, P.W. (2019), ‘Mapping the global endemicity and clinical burden of Plasmodium vivax, 2000-17: a spatial and temporal modelling study’, The Lancet, 394(10195), 332-343.

Zhu, S.J., Hendry, J.A., Almagro-Garcia, J., Pearson, R.D., Amato, R., Miles, A., Weiss, D.J., Lucas, T.C.D., Nguyen, M., Gething, P.W., Kwiatkowski, D., McVean, G. (2019), ‘The origins and relatedness structure of mixed infections vary with local prevalence of P. falciparum malaria’. eLife, 8, p.e40845.

*Pfeffer, D.A., Lucas, T.C.D., May, D., Harris, J., Rozier, J., Twohig, K.A., Dalrymple, U., Guerra, C.A., Moyes, C.L., Thorn, M., Nguyen, M., Bhatt, S., Cameron, E., Weiss, D.J., Howes, R.E., Battle, K.E., Gibson, H.S., Gething, P.W. (2018), ‘malariaAtlas: an R interface to global malariometric data hosted by the Malaria Atlas Project’, Malaria Journal, 17, 352.

Nguyen, M. and Veraart, A.E.D. (2018), ‘Bridging between short-range and long-range dependence with mixed spatio-temporal Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes’, Stochastics, 90(7), 1023-1052.

GBD 2017 Mortality Collaborators (2018), ‘Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality and life expectancy, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017’, The Lancet, 392(10159), 1684-1735.

Nguyen, M. and Veraart, A.E.D. (2017), ‘Modelling spatial heteroskedasticity by volatility modulated moving averages’, Spatial Statistics 20, 148-190.

Nguyen, M. and Veraart, A.E.D. (2017), ‘Spatio-temporal Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes: theory, simulation and statistical inference’, Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, 44(1), 46-80.

*Led by student or junior researcher.


Nguyen, M., Fundamental classes of ambit fields in space and space-time: theory, simulation and statistical inference, PhD thesis, Imperial College London, United Kingdom

Nguyen, M. and Veraart, A.E.D. (2017c), ‘A note on confidence intervals for parameter estimates of a spatio-temporal Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process’. Report available on arXiv:1612.05462.

See also my Google Scholar and ORCID profiles.