Research

Interests

My research focuses on modelling for the public health management of climate-sensitive diseases, specifically vector-borne, food-borne and water-borne diseases. With the aim to inform planning and resource allocation, I develop and integrate advanced statistical and mathematical techniques including spatiotemporal and extreme value modelling tools.

Preprints/upcoming work

*Cong, M., Wang, N., Feng, Y., Rong, L. and Nguyen, M. (2026). ‘Scenario-Response Extraction for Public Health Emergencies: Addressing Imbalanced Entities with a Chinese NER Model’. Submitted to journal.

*Feng, Y., Cong, M., Zhang, Y., Rong, L. and Nguyen, M. (2026). ‘Adaptive Resource Sharing Strategies for Grassroots Epidemic Response: Framework, Inference and Evaluation’. Submitted to journal.

Li, Y., Huang, T, Gajapathi, G., Lam, T.Y; Lee, H.F; Lau, L.H; Abisheganaden, J.A, Lim, J.T, Nguyen, M., Tan, K.B, Kuipers, E.J, Sung, J.J and Yim, S.H. (2026), ‘Nighttime Cold Stress and Cardiovascular Hospitalization in a Subtropical City’. Submitted to journal.

Nguyen, M., Rabonza, M., Lallemant, D. (2026). ‘The cost of ignoring space: bias and overconfidence in model calibration’. In preparation.

McPhail, M., Sanna, F., Symons, T., Nguyen, M., Whittaker, C., Amratia, P., Weiss, D., Gething, P. (2026). ‘Mapping malaria seasonality in sub-Saharan Africa: methodology and insights’. In preparation.

Publications

Weiss, D.J., Sanna, F., Keddie, S., Boyhan, T., Dzianach, P.A, McPhail, M., Seitz, J., Nguyen, T., Redpath, A., Chikolwa, T., Browne, A., Lubinda, J., Saddler, A., Hafsia, S., Jayaseelen, R., Baggen, H., Rozier, J., Symons, T.L., Harris, J., Connor, S., Vargas, C., Whittaker, C., Nguyen, M., and Gething, P.W. ‘A malaria seasonality database for sub-Saharan Africa’. Sci Data 12, 1703 (2025). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-025-05996-5

Weiss, D.J., Dzianach, P.A., Saddler, A., Lubinda, J., Browne, A., McPhail, M., Rumisha, S.F., Sanna, F., Gelaw, Y., Kiss, B., Hafsia, S., Jayaseelen, R., Baggens, H.S, Amratia, P., Bertozzi-Villa, A., Nesbit, O., Whisnant, J., Battle, K.E., Nguyen, M., Alene, K., Cameron, E., Penny, M., Bhatt, S., Smith, D.L., Symons, T.L., Mosser, J. F., Murray, C.J.L., Hay, S.I., Gething, P.W (2025). ‘Mapping the global prevalence, incidence, and mortality of Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax, 2000–2022: a spatial and temporal modelling study’. The Lancet (2025). https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(25)00038-8

Nguyen, M., Veraart, A.E.D., Taisne, B., Tan, C.T., Lallemant, D. (2023), ‘A dynamic extreme value model with applications to volcanic eruption forecasting’. Math Geosci (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11004-023-10109-2

Nguyen, M., Dzianach, P. A., Castle, P.C.W., Rumisha, S., Rozier, J. A., Harris, J.R., Gibson, H. S., Twohig, K. A., Vargas-Ruiz, C.A., Bisanzio, D., Cameron, E., Weiss, D. J., Bhatt, S., Gething, P., Battle, K. E. (2023). ‘Trends in treatment-seeking for fever in children under five years old in 151 countries from 1990 to 2020’, PLOS Global Public Health 3(8): e0002134.

*Rabonza, M., Nguyen, M., Biass, S., Jenkins, S., Taisne, B., and Lallemant, D. (2023), ‘Inversion and forward estimation with process-based models: An investigation into cost functions, uncertainty-based weights and model-data fusion’, Environmental Modelling & Software, 105750.

Nguyen, M., Loos, S., Lallemant, D. (2022), ‘Modelling spatial correlation in earthquake-induced damage and its impact on regional loss estimation’, Proceedings of the 13th International Conference on Structural Safety and Reliability (ICOSSAR 2021-2022), Shanghai. https://hdl.handle.net/10356/169433

*Tay, C., Lindsey, E.O., Chin, S.T., McCaughey, J.W., Bekaert, D., Nguyen, M., Hua, H., Manipon, G., Karim, M., Horton, B.P., Hill, E.M. (2022), ‘Sea-level rise from land subsidence in major coastal cities’, Nature Sustainability. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-022-00947-z.

*Rabonza, M., Lallemant, D., Lin, Y. C., Tadepalli, S., Wagenaar, D., Nguyen, M. et al. (2022), ‘Shedding light on avoided disasters: Measuring invisible benefits of disaster risk reduction using counterfactual probabilistic analysis’. GAR2022 Contributing Paper. Geneva: United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction. www.undrr.org/GAR2022

*Henry, N.J., Elagali, A., Nguyen, M., Chipeta, M. and Moore, C. (2022), ‘Variation in excess all-cause mortality by age, sex, and province during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy’, Scientific Reports 12, 1077.

*Whittaker, C., Winskill, P., Sinka, M., Pironon, S., Massey, C., Weiss, D., Nguyen, M., Gething, P. W., Kumar, A., Ghani, A., Bhatt, S. (2022), ‘A novel statistical framework for exploring the population dynamics and seasonality of mosquito populations’, Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 20220089.

Nguyen, M. and Lallemant, D. (2021), ‘Order Matters: the Benefits of Ordinal Fragility Curves for Damage and Loss Estimation’. Risk Analysis 42(5), 1136-1148.

Lucas, T.C.D., Nandi, A., Chestnutt, E.G., Twohig, K.A., Keddie, S.H., Collins, E.L., Howes, R.E., Nguyen, M., Rumisha, S., Python, A., Arambepola, R., Bertozzi-Villa, A., Hancock, P., Amratia, P., …, Gething, P.W., Weiss, D.J. (2021), ‘Mapping malaria by sharing spatial information between incidence and prevalence datasets’, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series C (Applied Statistics) 70, 733-749.

Nguyen, M., Howes, R.E., Lucas, T.C.D., Battle, K.E., Cameron, E., Gibson, H.S., Rozier, J., Keddie, S., Collins, E., Arambepola, R., Kang, S., Hendriks, C., Nandi, A., Rumisha, S., Bhatt, S., Mioramalala, S., Nambinisoa, M. Andriamananjara, Rakotomanana, F., Gething, P.W., Weiss, D.J. (2020), ‘Mapping malaria seasonality in Madagascar using health facility data’, BMC Medicine 18, 26.

*Rathmes, G., Rushima, S.F., Lucas, T.C.D, Twohig, K.A., Python, A., Nguyen, M., Nandi, A.K., Keddie, S., Collins, E.L., Rozier, J., Gibson, H., Chestnutt, E.G., Battle, K.E., Humphreys, G.S., Amratia, P., Arambepola, R., Bertozzi-Villa, A., Hancock, P., Millar, J.J., Symons, T.L., Bhatt, S., Cameron, E., Guerin, P., Gething, P.W., Weiss, D.J. (2020), ‘Global estimation of anti-malarial drug effectiveness for the treatment of uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum malaria 1991-2019‘, Malaria Journal 19, 374.

GBD 2019 Diseases and Injuries Collaborators (2020), ‘Global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019’, The Lancet, 396(10258):1204–1222.

GBD 2019 Viewpoint Collaborators (2020), ‘Five insights from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019’, The Lancet, 396(10258), 1135-59.

GBD 2019 Demographics Collaborators (2020), ‘Global age-sex-specific fertility, mortality, healthy life expectancy (HALE), and population estimates in 204 countries and territories, 1950-2019: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019’, The Lancet, 396(10258), 17-23.

Nguyen, M., Rozier, J., Keddie, S., Howes, R. E., Lucas, T. C. D., Weiss, D. J., Battle, K. E., Gething, P. W., Cameron, E., Gibson, H. S., Nambinisoa, M. Andriamananjara (2019). ‘A statistical modelling framework for mapping malaria seasonality’, Proceedings of the 62nd ISI World Statistics Congress, Kuala Lumpur, Contributed Paper Session (CPS) – Volume 3, 80-88.

Lucas, T. C. D., Hendriks, C., Python, A., Nandi, A., Hancock, P., Nguyen, M., Gething, P., Rumisha, S., Weiss, D., Battle, K. E., Cameron, E., Howes, R. (2019). ‘Model ensembles with different response variables for base and meta models: Malaria disaggregation regression combining prevalence and incidence data’, Proceedings of the 62nd ISI World Statistics Congress, Kuala Lumpur, Contributed Paper Session (CPS) – Volume 2, 165-174.

Nguyen, M. (2019). ‘From theory to application: a spatio-temporal modelling perspective’, Proceedings of the 21st European Young Statisticians Meeting, Belgrade, 73-79.

Weiss, D.J., Lucas, T.C.D, Nguyen, M., Nandi, A., Bisanzio, D., Battle, K.E., Cameron, E., Twohig, K., Pfeffer, D., Rozier, J., Gibson, H., Rao, P.C., Casey, D., Bertozzi-Villa, A. Collins, E.L., Dalrymple, U., Gray, N., Harris, J.R., …, Gething, P.W. (2019), ‘Mapping the global prevalence, incidence, and mortality of Plasmodium falciparum, 2000-17: a spatial and temporal modelling study’, The Lancet, 394(10195), 322-331.

Battle, K.E., Lucas, T.C.D., Nguyen, M., Howes, R.H., Nandi, A., Twohig, K.A., Pfeffer, D.A., Cameron, E., Rao, P.C., Casey, D.C., Gibson, H.S., Rozier, J., Dalrymple, U., Keddie, S.H., Collins, E.L., Harris, J.R., Guerra, C.A., Thorn, M.P., …, Gething, P.W. (2019), ‘Mapping the global endemicity and clinical burden of Plasmodium vivax, 2000-17: a spatial and temporal modelling study’, The Lancet, 394(10195), 332-343.

Zhu, S.J., Hendry, J.A., Almagro-Garcia, J., Pearson, R.D., Amato, R., Miles, A., Weiss, D.J., Lucas, T.C.D., Nguyen, M., Gething, P.W., Kwiatkowski, D., McVean, G. (2019), ‘The origins and relatedness structure of mixed infections vary with local prevalence of P. falciparum malaria’. eLife, 8, p.e40845.

*Pfeffer, D.A., Lucas, T.C.D., May, D., Harris, J., Rozier, J., Twohig, K.A., Dalrymple, U., Guerra, C.A., Moyes, C.L., Thorn, M., Nguyen, M., Bhatt, S., Cameron, E., Weiss, D.J., Howes, R.E., Battle, K.E., Gibson, H.S., Gething, P.W. (2018), ‘malariaAtlas: an R interface to global malariometric data hosted by the Malaria Atlas Project’, Malaria Journal, 17, 352.

Nguyen, M. and Veraart, A.E.D. (2018), ‘Bridging between short-range and long-range dependence with mixed spatio-temporal Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes’, Stochastics, 90(7), 1023-1052.

GBD 2017 Mortality Collaborators (2018), ‘Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality and life expectancy, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017’, The Lancet, 392(10159), 1684-1735.

Nguyen, M. and Veraart, A.E.D. (2017), ‘Modelling spatial heteroskedasticity by volatility modulated moving averages’, Spatial Statistics 20, 148-190.

Nguyen, M. and Veraart, A.E.D. (2017), ‘Spatio-temporal Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes: theory, simulation and statistical inference’, Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, 44(1), 46-80.

*Led by student or junior researcher.

Thesis/Reports

Nguyen, M., Fundamental classes of ambit fields in space and space-time: theory, simulation and statistical inference, PhD thesis, Imperial College London, United Kingdom

Nguyen, M. and Veraart, A.E.D. (2017c), ‘A note on confidence intervals for parameter estimates of a spatio-temporal Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process’. Report available on arXiv:1612.05462.

See also my Google Scholar and ORCID profiles.